Recently Daniel Negreanu started playing regularly in the 100-200 game on PokerStars. Most people think he is a big underdog. I made this video blog to highlight HOW big of an underdog and why fundamentally he has a long way to go before he will be a favorite in that particular game.
The video is probably best viewed in full screen to clearly see the actions.
Just to let everyone know if you are a douchebag there are other sites for that nonsense. I will just delete the drivvle you post. If you want to have an intelligent discussion this is the spot for you (see John's post or anything from Jamesdabear). Criticism is fine, that is how people learn but writing a moronic post because your time has no value is pointless. I will delete every single one.
(I am responding to John)
I rewatched the video and I think you are misquoting me. You are saying that Daniel has trouble with keeping the pot smallish, I don't agree with you there at all. He is known for his small ball style. I think your analysis is the one that has the benefit of hindsight, I was actually talking about the hand as it ACTUALLY played out. Daniel rightly read that this guy was taking shots at him, for him to make a push work he wouldn't have to be right too many times given the size of the pot once the button 4 bets. So I am comfortable with my analysis.
I also disagree with you about playing the 78 out of the small blind. 78 suited is a drawing hand and without the benefit of position in an aggressive game you will find yourself all in and behind quite a bit.
Certainly there are games where your strategy COULD work but I don't think 100-200 is one of those games.
he had a pretty big day, he was in the hole, looks like he won about 80k.
I (and many others) think that DN is a big fish in cash games but your analysis here leaves much to be desired. Pushing with 87s after reraise preflop ? Only call he is gonna get is one that has him beat and excluding
post-facto analysis of the kind seen here (you must play too many donkaments), pushing with suited connector preflop to win a small pot and possibly lose the whole stack with the only equity being fold equity is a recipe for disaster. A much better way to play the hand is to keep the pot small, he could flat call before the flop and take the play from there by being aggressive on the flop or on the turn
depending on texture. That way he keeps his options open and has a variety
of plays at his disposal. The fundamental mistake here being him reraising
out of position with suited connector.
DN is bad because he has no concept of pot control. He wins lots of small pots and extracts min value out of his hands while he loses monsters and pays off ppl too much because of pot odds. Well pot odds don't mean nothing if ppl know his game (which has been the same for years now) and bet accordingly so that they get paid off. Yet he never learns from his mistakes and he keeps on using the same fundamentally flawed style that may work in donkaments but is getting him crushed in cash games.
Latest Tweet from Daniel: March results so far in the 100-200 NLH game on PokerStars: 5086 hands played +90,295. Tomm I have "work" to, commercials etc.
RealKidPoker
In my room in London and plan on spending the day playing 100-200 NLH on PokerStars right now.
This must be Canadian for yum, yum come get you some.
Again... it's hard for me to adjust to what you're saying as mainly a low-stakes MTT/SNG player, but I'm trying because I've had such difficulty in cash games.
Against weaker competition, I've always played much, much tighter, not even considering a hand such as 23s, and definitely playing a mid suited connecting hand from position, and either flopping it, winning it with a c-bet or getting out... even playing hands as high as JJ for set value only. Obviously, all of my cash game experience is in micro stakes.
When I play tournaments, I'm usually forgoing potentially +ev situations early on with intent on survival. Yes, you miss out on a couple situations that in the grand scheme won't really affect your chance of winning the tournament to be able to pick on weaker players later who have accumulated a stack. At my level, no matter how deep you go into the game, you can find a fish or 10.
To me, Daniel already has such a balanced range to anybody who would EVER play him, tournament, cash game, early position, late position, big stack, short stack, whatever... it's foolish for him to represent a big hand (that in this case he's slowplaying when he just smooth calls the smallish raise?). Every time he plays he's representing a big hand... and a small hand... and a medium-strength hand.
What do you think the guy's reasoning for such a small four bet with AK there? Is he planning on folding or flatting if either first raiser or Negreanu five bet?
I suppose it's a matter of perspective. Certainly what you are saying is true regarding implied odds but I think that gets reversed when you are trying to build a stack against inferior opponents. What we are looking at here is a microcosm, if Daniel were playing against all horrible opponents his plays would be more correct. Because he isn't, in my opinion, he is playing incorrectly.
BTW, one of my accounts is called "Hisopponent" this refers to multiple write ups regarding hands where I had Daniel all in (in the main event) and rather than use my name (I believe it was Cardplayer) kept calling me "hisopponent". I sort of liked the idea of just being yet another guy taking on the big ballers, so I added that name to the stable.
...which of course we never, ever see because if he doesn't have a stack, he's not on tv.
And I'm sure you meant recipe for disaster, not recipe for success, right?
Please keep these up, because I'm learning a lot about cash games, which is far from my specialty. For example, I always thought implied value was better in cash games because your stack was almost never a consideration, only whether you could reload your stack for future situations (and if you can't, why the efff are you in the game).
He certainly is getting the right odds but his opponents range of hands there really is strongish. The implied value you get from suited connectors is in the fact that you have more information in position. In addition to that why is he not re-raising in these situations, I can tell you, because he is trying to hit his hand. If you need to hit your hands to win the pot ALL of the time that is a recipe for success. I have said this a million times about Daniel and tournaments (I have had the good fortune to be at his table a half dozen times or so), he is in every single hand dinkin and dunkin around but when all the chips are in he typically has the nuts. The implied value you get in tournaments is better because of the value of your stack. One of the biggest criticisms of Daniel is that he does not play a short stack well in tournaments.
While once you see the hands it does appear he has odds IMO he just doesn't have enough to make these calls. BTW he was up to 85k yesterday and dusted it off with. Since his 100k day he has lost almost 80k.
I'm not saying I agree with playing 23s this way, from ep after a first-position raiser and then a re-raise behind him (albeit probably an incorrect small one)... but doesn't he get the right odds to call pre... the right odds to call post flop... and then get his opponent to make a horrible call on the turn? Isn't this more his opponent's bad playS than anything?
I wouldn't play this way, but I'm not Daniel Negreanu either. I'm not as good as him, nor really as capable of making plays like this with suited connectors. I have no idea what his motives were, but it sure looks like, in this case, he got his opponents to do the wrong thing several times.
This hand is just a debacle and this is one that got shown down, imagine all the hands that he is flat calling with out of position that don't.
http://bluff.com/fa0aee8-d1
ummm... he regularly gets beat in those games too... at least the ones on tv against the ridiculously tough lineups.
Download and run Bluffware to have your hands automatically uploaded to your personal Bluff.com database.
Watch this video to see how.
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Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Its cool to hear you guys critique DN. I'm more of a fan than I am a player, so my mind doesnt think this way. Thanks for doing this.