What exactly is this "Run Good" phenomenon I hear of...

I was talking with natural1x about some of the top online MTT players and we kept coming back to they run good. O'rly? Or is there something that we are not considering, certain spots in tournaments they are looking to exploit.  Certain holdings in certain positions that they play...so, my question is "what am I missing that they're getting?"  In the past (about 4-5 yrs ago) when I was a much worse player I would play the nightly guarantees on Full Tilt and made a couple of final tables, as I got better my results got worse...WTF?  There has got to be something I am missing and I guess specifically Bobby, Paul, and Matthias I ask "what is it that I'm missing?"  I'm not running bad at the moment but I just feel I'm at the threshold of breaking down the micro tourneys that will pad my roll enough to start satelliting into some of the larger guarantees. 

Quote

well.. cant disagree with you Honus, since I've become better my results got worse.

we probably play to  tight and are affraid to bust.



Quote

Well I think we have a pretty good idea Honus from those hand histories and text in the books by Rizen, etc.  My take on it is this.  These top guys are picking some good spots to chip up.  These spots are spots that could result in them getting busted out--resteals off weak players, etc. They are playing a lot of volume so their goal is not to min cash--they take chances.  Often I suspect this results in them getting busted out.  But often it also results in them having a great stack.

 

As for why you would be worse now than before I think some of it may come down to what is a donkey...lol  I've about come full circle a bit on what proper calling ranges are for certain situations.  I was a bit surprised at what the "ideal" calling range was for certain situations in Kill Everyone.  Basically its a wider range than I would have guessed.  In the old days I didn't know any better and I'd call because I had two picture cards.  The irony is that this is often correct.

 

But mainly I think they are doing things that your avg. good player is not doing--mainly picking spots to 3bet or shove--not necessarily with great hands.  Plus once they get a stack they are raising with a wider range from position than the avg. good player, and post flop they don't give up--if they smell any weakness they will take it.

 

Also, I don't really believe in running good, running bad.  Maybe it is the math major in me, but the odds are exactly the same for everyone each time the cards are dealt.  Over time I don't really think it is possible to have one player be that much more lucky or unlucky as compared to another player.  I can't explain why you seem to see this sometimes, but really I think it is about timing.  Do you get the bad beat when there are 100 chps out there are do you get the bad beat when your stack is on the line.

 

I think it is only natural to have some bad results as you try new techniques that you do not have 100% ironed out yet.



Quote

plus I think the game now is different than it was years ago based on what I've read/seen.  I think the game has evolved to where in a lot of MTT tournaments solid ABC is not going to get you there unless you just have a phenominal run of cards.  I noticed in the SCOOP for instance the other day that it was very difficult to just take the line of raise a decent hand in position and cbet after the flop when it is folded ot me.  I tried and I was abused...lol



Quote

@triffen22, commiting my whole stack is not a problem for me, at any given moment my opponent will be faced with a tough decision because I am not scared of shoving.  Along the lines of what Ryan is saying, when I was still in my poker infancy I would play hands that were marginal, out of position, and stick around for some draws.  I would set mine a lot.  I'm just looking for that little extra that I'm missing to take the next step,

Honus



Quote

that's what I have aswell, honestly.  I (IMO) play decent poker, but often I find myself rather hoping to chip up than actually working up.



Quote

I think this is something I can speak on fairly well.  Tournaments often matter more to people because there are no second chances.  One thing I learned about tournaments back in the day that still applies now is that people calling does not necessarily mean they have a hand.  The value of a bigger stack is only useful if you use it to your advantage.  Certainly there are inflection points but in my mind those points aren't at the money bubbles.  The biggest point where the good separate themselves from the great is at the final table bubble or where the tables are 5-5 and 5-6.  

When I play I am playing for a bigger stack and the cards are mostly irrelevant.  Once you have that stack you need to make the smaller stacks pay and you can't be scared to get lucky when the price is right.



Quote

I'm with Triffen. Think of it this way, as a beginning player you play stupid and thus agressive with bad hands. You want to be agressive and that is how you did so well is that you never over thought anything and kept getting chips by playing "right". but now, that you know a hellava lot more, you play tighter and are afraid to risk an all in on the best second pair etc and miss those oppurtunities. You overthink your opponents and let them get away, because thats what you have been training yourself to do, think about everything and not play boldly and sometimes stupid like you did when you started.

 

Thats a concept to think about I guess.



Quote

But that's the problem, the real secret to poker is that the fish have it close to right.  Sure you can win playing solid but you will never have that "run good" phenomenon.  What people should be doing is learning a base of knowledge and then expanding that.  Expanding it means calling in position when you are deep, 3 betting occasionally and attacking smaller stacks when you are deep.

Some of this is hard because if you aren't making final tables it's hard to describe how the play changes dramatically.  

Now of course if the final table play is way aggressive then the most profitable way to play would be tight.  Whatever the majority of people are doing the opposite is almost always correct.



Quote

So it all comes down to knowing how to adjust? Which is the difference between Pros and the rest of us.



Quote

What exactly is this "Run Good" phenomenon I hear of...

 

I think it a myth, stuff you only read in books and see in movies.



 
X